The LBBC Business Risk Advisor
The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.
There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and it may get worse before it gets better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, they will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, will have the financial resources to pay for the country’s needs.
No-one can predict when stability will return so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business. The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material on this page is provided by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.
This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular business under consideration.
We are sure that LBBC members - both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market - will find the information provided on this page and the more detailed advice available from the providers both interesting and a valuable input to their business strategies and decisions.
GardaWorld .Xplored Risk Analysis and Reporting:
GardaWorld risk reports for Libya are produced in country and contain the very latest ground-truth information that analyses the current security situation, political, regulatory and cultural challenges. Reports are designed for people with operational reporting requirements and can support staff deployment and movement plans with their up-to-date review of current threat levels or risk in Libya.
Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Libya
MS Risk supports clients in a variety of business sectors with
research, investigative activity, crisis response, project management and
consulting services. MS Risk enjoys strong links working in partnership
with and supporting law enforcement and military agencies. It has
completed projects for clients around the world and in sectors such as natural
resources, maritime, supply chain, financial services, media, hospitality,
construction engineering and for the legal profession.
To discuss our services, please contact email@example.com or +44 207 754 3555
Links: Read MS Risk's latest report Outlook- Libyan Port Security here - 16 October 2016
|JANUS GLOBAL OPERATIONS|
JANUS GLOBAL OPERATIONS continues to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis.
Janus Global Operations - Libya Security Summary - 18 October 2016
The focal point this week was on Friday when a group of former General National Congress (GNC) members backed by local militias stormed buildings used by the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) declaring a coup. The occupation was led by former “Prime Minister” Khalifa Ghwell backed by militia opposed to the GNA as he took over the old GNC’s headquarters next to the Rixos hotel. The stand-off in the morning between the two groups ended peacefully when state council militia withdrew as their commitment was fragile due to unpaid salaries. UN backed Prime Minister Sarraj and members of the presidency council who were meeting in Tunis at the time, called an emergency conference and ordered the arrest of the perpetrators.
Both the United Nations and European Union warned against attempts to create parallel institutions and reiterated their backing for the U.N negotiated deal that formed a Government of National Unity (GNA) in Tripoli. Concerns were also raised from the United States offering its full support and stating that the buildings must be surrendered and returned to the GNA. Although the coup was fairly peaceful, tensions remained high around the government buildings as it triggered outbreaks of fighting between rival militias in which one person is known to have been killed and several wounded. Sporadic fire has continued over the past few days. Haithem Tajouri’s Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB) has expanded its network of checkpoints set up immediately after the coup mainly in the city centre around Martyrs’ Square into which armoured vehicles have been deployed. Although the city has reported varying states of incidents, the general atmosphere has been good with people continuing their business.
On the economic front the outcome of a two-and-a-half-year legal battle between Goldman Sachs and Libya's $67 billion sovereign fund is a triumph for the Wall Street giant, which was vindicated despite embarrassing revelations about how some of its bankers conducted business. The National Oil Corporation oil output has jumped into 551 thousand barrels per day (bpd). NOC expects oil production will be around 900 thousand bpd, which would be the highest rate of oil output since June 2013. This new leap in oil production comes after the NOC has restored control of the oil crescent following the seizure by Khalifa Hafter’s Dignity Operation forces of the oil terminals and fields last month.
Further to the east, Libyan forces recaptured the city's Cambo area in Sirte and swept out tunnels used by militants to hide and prepare ambushes, and seized a field hospital. They found charred bodies of militants hit by air strikes. The next phase is entering the Ghiza Bahriya district, supported by US airstrikes which carried out over 30 sorties in the past few days and 36 strikes earlier in this month. Casualties continue to rise as 14 pro-government forces were killed and at least 20 injured on Friday when a car bomb detonated.
Benghazi is still witnessing the offensive of General Hafter’s Operation Dignity as they try to clear final pockets of militants. Five boys were injured when a rocket landed near where they were playing football outside Benina sports stadium on Friday. The rocket is thought to have been fired from Ganfouda where IS and Ansar Al-Sharia terrorists are holding out. The Shura council announced that five of its members had been killed from clashes west of the city with ISIS and LNA forces. There was minimal reporting of airstrikes this week as LNA jets conducted a strike in As Sabri.
An attack in Derna occurred when an LNA MiG23 warplane targeted a suspected Shura Council ammunition storage depot in the eastern part of the city. This was the first attack of its kind for many weeks and is believed to be in retaliation to the shelling of La Braq airfield. The previous day, LNA/AF helicopters performed air missions destroying vehicles in the region and fighter jets conducted an air strike on the seaport in Derna.
The south of Libya has remained quiet with continued smuggling crimes for financial gain. Sabha reports some activity with the kidnap of the local bank official.
Janus Global Operations continues to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis. To discuss these services further please contact us on +218 911713972 or +971 508764175 or visit our website www.janusgo.com
If you would like to contribute to this section of the LBBC website, in the first instance please contact the Secretariat at: firstname.lastname@example.org or call +44 (0) 20 7152 4051