The LBBC Business Risk Advisor
The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.
There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and it may get worse before it gets better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, they will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, will have the financial resources to pay for the country’s needs.
No-one can predict when stability will return so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business. The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material on this page is provided by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.
This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular business under consideration.
We are sure that LBBC members - both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market - will find the information provided on this page and the more detailed advice available from the providers both interesting and a valuable input to their business strategies and decisions.
|SNE Special Projects|
SNE Special Projects have operated within Libya since the revolution of 2011 and are a fully licensed security provider working with our Libyan partner company. We have kept our permanent British & Libyan Country Management Team in Tripoli throughout the last few difficult months, supporting our clients staff and critical infrastructure and offering up to date, regular and accurate reporting throughout this period. We are now in a strong position to advise and support our clients as they look to plan their re-entry back into Libya as and when the current situation stabilises and allows for remobilization. We have a vast amount of experience of supporting clients from the media, telecoms, power generation & NGO sectors. For more information on our services within Libya please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org
SNE Libya Security Summary - 19 May 2015
The EU foreign ministers agreed on Monday to launch a three stage military operation to counter Libya based people smugglers under the leadership of an Italian Rear Admiral. The details of this plan is expected to be announced in the next 24 hours with a coalition force expected to be put together very soon.
The Governments of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States of America reaffirm their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Libya, and to ensuring that Libyan economic, financial, and energy resources are used for the benefit of all Libyan people. A Foreign Office Spokeswoman stated this week that “At a time when the UN sponsored political process is making progress towards a lasting resolution of the conflict in Libya, we express our concern at attempts to divert Libyan resources to the narrow benefit of any side in the conflict and to disrupt financial and economic institutions that belong to all Libyans. “We reiterate our expectation that those on all sides representing Libya’s independent institutions, namely the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), the Libyan Investment Authority (LIA), the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Libyan Post Telecommunications and Information technology company (LPTIC) will continue to act in the long term interests of the Libyan people pending clarification of unified governance structures under a Government of National Accord.
A senior leader of the Libya Dawn Operation, Tareq Ajina said that some front line leaders from Al-Zaweya, Sabrata and Gharyan have met with their counterparts from Zintan and Wirshiffana to agree on a ceasefire and allow the displaced to return to their towns. Ajina told Ajwa Net that they asked Wirshiffana and Zintan’s leaders to forget their idea of pushing their forces toward Tripoli and to withdraw them to their town’s administrative borders facilitating an environment for a ceasefire as well as securing the return roads of the displaced people. He also pointed out that the other party approved all the conditions of the ceasefire except for the entering of its forces into Tripoli, saying that the discussions are still underway promising to contact with the Operations Room officials and other official government personnel once the agreement is reached.
A Tunisian blew himself up with a grenade following a police chase in Tripoli's Tajoura district on Sunday. Security sources said the Special Deterrent Force chased three Tunisian terrorists affiliated with IS following intelligence reports of their entry into Libya. One terrorist was captured, the second is still at large and the third exploded himself when the SDF surrounded him near Najma factory to the west of Tajoura.
Misrata’s Zawiat Al-Mahjoub brigade and fighters from Harawa are reported to have launched an operation against Nufaliya, 127 kilometres east of Sirte, currently held by Islamic State (IS) supporters to take back towns and ground that IS took last week.
The House of Representatives (HoR) announced that it had received the 2015 budget proposal from Abdullah Thinni’s government estimated at LD 44 bn (US$ 32 bn). The revelation was made by Representative Omar Tantoush head of the HoR Finance Committee who said that his committee was reviewing the budget proposal and making some amendments prior to presenting it to the House for a vote this week. Tantoush also revealed that his committee had called in the Finance Minister, the CBL Governor, the head of the Audit Bureau as well as the head of the Administrative Control Authority the previous week in order to review the budget proposal.
Libyan state oil company AGOCO, which is active in the east of the OPEC member country, is producing about 270,000 barrels a day of crude, unchanged from a week ago, a company spokesman said on Sunday. The company's Hariga export port and connected Sarir and Messla oilfields are working normally, he said, adding: "We are facing no problems at all." The port located in the eastern city of Tobruk has had to close several times this year because of protests and a pipeline blast. The Arabian Gulf Oil Co (AGOCO) is part of the NOC state oil company controlling the country's oil and gas sector.
We are advising NO movement to the western area of Libya in and around Kikla and Rujban and other surrounding areas where fighting is still ongoing between the Zintan and Libya Dawn militia groups. Sporadic fighting between rival tribal factions is also currently ongoing in the areas of Ubari, Sabha & Murzuq and we are advising our clients NOT to travel to these southern areas at present.
We are still presently advising NO travel should be made to Benghazi until the current situation shows signs of stability and Operation Dignity forces have full control of the city and transportation methods of entering and leaving Benghazi are open again.
The British FCO and US State Department are still advising against travel to Libya and are monitoring the security and political situation before considering remobilisation plans back into Libya at some point in the future.
Before considering travel to Libya, an itinerary specific pre-travel risk assessment including mitigation measures are recommended. In-country personnel should be confident in their evacuation procedures and crisis management plans and in light of the current situation these should be checked and updated where necessary with the appropriate level of support in country to activate the plans when required.
To discuss further how SNE can support your projects in Libya please email email@example.com or call our Dubai office on +971 44561542 or +971 503786803
Libya-Analysis ® provides a range of bespoke Libya
monitoring products which offer detailed analytical reporting, up-to-date
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To find out more about our Libya Monitoring service or
other bespoke products, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org. And to get a sense of what our company is up to and to read our frequently updated
blog about what is happening on the ground in Libya please visit www.libya-analysis.com
Wednesday 22 April 2015
After a lull on the diplomatic, humanitarian and military fronts, the past week registered several developments in Libya both at the political and military levels. Instability and widespread clashes afflicted western Libya, with a proto anti-Libya Dawn uprising taking place in various districts of Tripoli, and particularly in the neighbourhoods of Fashloum and Tajoura, on the outskirts of town. Whilst Libya Dawn has retained control of all areas in and around the capital, the incidents of this week have revealed yet another layer of fragility in the Libya Dawn coalition, possibly reinforcing the push of hawks among the Tobruk establishment to pursue a military solution until a complete victory is achieved on the Misratan-led bloc holding sway in western Libya. Libya Dawn forces are nonetheless leaving no stone unturned in their attempt to stabilise the situation in the capital as they have reportedly employed heavy handed strategies, including arresting civilians suspected of sympathising with Operation Dignity and the broader Karama camp.
UN-backed negotiations resumed in Morocco despite an airstrike over Tripoli’s Mitiga airport minutes before the GNC delegation to the UN talks was due to take off. This was undoubtedly the most controversial attack of the past week in Libya and drew strong criticism from UNSMIL and its Chief, Bernardino Leon, whose remarks appeared to have the effect of curbing the number and frequency of airstrikes for the remainder of the week. Whilst at different times during the week both sides threatened to pull out altogether from the process, the UN is working relentlessly to produce a political roadmap document incorporating requests from both sides. UNSMIL announced emphatically on Sunday 19 April that almost 80% of the new national unity government has been agreed upon by both sides. Nonetheless, observers agree that the finalising of a rapprochement political deal is still far from happening and that no breakthrough should be expected anytime soon on this front.
The oil sector continues to be characterised by a weak and unstable performance. After a temporary closure due to adverse weather conditions, the port of Hariga was re-opened on Monday 13 April, allowing for resumption of oil exports from this port in the measure of approximately 700,000 barrels per week, which add up to the 600,000 barrels exported from Zueitina. Whilst both ports are under control of the Cyrenaica-based camp, the decision taken by Thinni’s cabinet to set up alternative offshore bank accounts in the UAE has been met with reluctance. In fact, at present, international buyers are not interested to pay for Libyan oil in accounts not registered with the national Central Bank, and the UN has indicated this as a red line for the imposition of sanctions thus reducing the risk of a renewed spike in violence in the ‘Oil Crescent’ region. As previously discussed, in fact, the Tripoli based establishment has expressed deep hostility against the decision of creating new bank accounts and has repeatedly threatened to re-vamp its Operation Shuruq-led assault so as to undermine extraction activities in the ‘Oil Crescent’ region. Finally, instability and the overall tragic security situation marring Libya were also displayed through two incidents occurred during the weekend. Firstly, an Italian fishing boat was temporarily seized by Libyan forces off the coast of Misrata, before it managed to escape to Sicily. At the time of writing this post, conflicting reports portrayed the incident with very different events and perspectives, thus not allowing for a clear analysis of its implications. Overall, however, this incident confirms the inherent risk stemming from the instability and calm tension marring the waters around Libya. Secondly, on Sunday, the media outlet of the Islamic State in Libya published a video allegedly showing the execution of thirty Ethiopian Christians in undisclosed locations in Cyrenaica and Fezzan. Whilst this video received less media coverage in Western countries than the previous major Libyan IS video release (“Message in Blood to the People of the Cross”), it is likely that its impact will be felt in decision-making rooms where European politicians are discussing the possibility of a monitoring mission to patrol the sea off the coast of Libya as well as IS entrenchment in the country. Discussions around the issue of an EU-backed monitoring mission picked up speed again on Sunday after a boat transporting 700 migrants coming from the Libyan coast capsized, killing all of his passenger and bringing the migrants’ death toll in the Mediterranean to above 1,600 people since the start of the year. The EU's response is best explained via this article in The Guardian.
|Hawki Security Risk Management|
Hawki is a global security risk management company that provides asset protection, personnel protection and security training. Our mission is to enable clients to conduct their legitimate business, wherever they are in the world and whatever threats they face. We provide risk and security management services, with particular focus on post-conflict, remote, medium-risk and high-risk security environments. Our clients range from private individuals to multinational corporations, governments, the public sector and supranational organisations.
For more information about the services we provide please contact Hugh Martin, CEO Hawki Worldwide: Tel + 44(0)20 3542 1500; email email@example.com
Libya, an update: the country’s future as a single state lies in the battle for control of the oil (February 2015)
Even to the seasoned observer, the daily reports from Libya paint a picture of an incomprehensible, anarchic morass. But within the nationwide unrest and violence, Major General Robin Searby identifies a strategic play taking place that may decide the future shape and size of Libya, and with it, the rest of the North African region.
Despite denials all round, Libya is in a state of civil war; one country, two governments. Civil War is a ferocious and all-out struggle. The conflict in Libya is certainly creating centrifugal forces that could break the state apart. Yet at the same time elements of the government machinery continue to operate throughout the country and across conflict lines. The national power grid keeps going, albeit intermittently, and pensions are getting paid. This ‘carry on as normal’ attitude is slowly weakening but nevertheless suggests that there are still powerful binding forces across the country, giving some hope of a return to unity.
Enlightened opinion views Libya rather simplistically as a country in which two forces, one secular and one Islamist, are actively opposing each other but neither side has the resources to force an outcome. Stalemate exists. The reality is more complicated: alongside the two main protagonists - the internationally recognised, secular government in Tobruk, and the claimant, Islamist government in Tripoli - there is a complex mesh of militias and local gangs who have seized land or assets as they demand resources or power. Intermixed within this are tribes and local communities who have scores to settle from the Qadhafi era when those who showed loyalty to the regime received preferential treatment.
The resultant attrition of the state’s manpower and resources is eroding its strength and capability. This environment provides a perfect breeding ground for the widespread and violent crime, particularly murder, armed robbery and kidnap that is rife today.
Now, however, a greater sense of strategic purpose is emerging in the conflict between the secular and Islamist forces. Previously the loose groupings or militias on each side have concentrated on securing assets local to their area. They now recognise that neither side can win unless they can secure national assets vital to their survival and prosperity. The Misrata based militias, who make up much of the largely Islamist Libya Dawn forces, are aware that control of the capital, Tripoli, is insufficient to maintain a viable state. Without any control over the vital oil and gas assets - the principal source of national income - their regime would have no revenues. They have now committed forces to a serious struggle taking place in the Gulf of Sirte whose outcome will define the viability and shape of the Libyan state. This is covered later in the article.
Water as a Weapon
The most vital strategic service, provision of water, has been largely left alone. In simple terms the majority of Libya’s water comes from the south through two giant pipelines, one in the West and one in the East. They meet and join up on the Mediterranean coast. The secular Dignity forces (loyal to the internationally recognised Libyan government based in Tobruk) could, if they wished, shut down the Eastern pipeline leading to Misrata. The effect would be catastrophic. Whilst the Western pipeline would still be operating, it is much smaller and could not pump sufficient water to sustain the population.
Why hasn’t water been exploited as a “weapon” so far? The optimistic belief is that things will settle down, life will return to normal within a continuing Libyan state and thus water is too sacred to touch. Or possibly the two ‘governments’ in Tobruk and Tripoli are trying to woo international opinion, by showing that they are governing the whole population and not denying water to anyone. Or it may just be that the Civil War hasn’t got to that stage - yet. Whether they do reach that stage may well be defined by the outcome of the current battles over control of Libya’s oil and gas.
The Battle for Oil
The scale of the nationwide violence tends to obscure the significance of a strategic conflict taking place by the Gulf of Sirte, astride the Cyrenaican border. The border was established centuries ago when ambassadors from the ancient provinces of Roman Tripolitania and Greek Cyrenaica marched at an agreed time toward each other from their respective Capitols, Carthage and Cyrene. Where they met would decide the border.
Known as Marble Arch, the border lies 130 kilometres west of Ajdabiya in the Gulf of Sirte. On the Cyrenaican side lies approximately 80% of the oil and gas resources of Libya. It is not surprising that Libyans living outside Cyrenaica are overwhelmingly in favour of maintaining the integrity of Libya. Equally unsurprising is the growing movement inside Cyrenaica toward secession and independence. However, Libya’s largest oil export terminal is some miles outside Cyrenaica at As Sidra. Close by, at Ras Lanouf, is the biggest oil refinery. These two assets are pivotal to any ambitions of financial independence in Cyrenaica.
They are protected by Libya’s Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) under the command of Ibrahim Jadhran, a Cyrenaican. He is also the founder member of the Cyrenaica Political Bureau, a body that publicly supports federalism but whose stated aims are clearly secessionist. They are opposed by the forces of Libya Dawn, the military arm of the “claimant” government in Tripoli. There has been fierce fighting in the Wadi al Ahmar (Red Wadi) to the west of As Sidra. The seizure of the oil facilities at As Sidra and Ras Lanuf is a vital objective for Libya Dawn, important enough for them to withdraw from southern Libya to reinforce their assaulting forces. They have even tried a surprise assault from the sea; it failed, but caused grievous damage to oil storage facilities.
Libya Dawn has not dislodged the PGF despite a serious assault on 4th February which left many casualties on both sides. A potentially serious escalation took place at the same time with an attack on the Mabruk oil field 100 miles to the south: gunmen killed and kidnapped a number of guards and site staff. If Libya Dawn was involved in the assault it would indicate a significant shift in their tactics, reinforcing the vital importance of the Cyrenaican energy assets to them; and perhaps also their desperation.
The outcome of this particular struggle is likely to determine the future shape of Libya as a whole.
Attitudes are hardening in Cyrenaica as they also attempt to force the Islamists of Ansar Al Sharia out of Benghazi and Derna. If the Libyan Dawn Forces cannot break the stalemate there is a possibility that Cyrenaican opinion will shift further towards independence and a new international border in the Red Wadi.
This would give satisfaction to the Cyrenaican ambassadors who settled the original border. When the two sides met, the Cyrenaicans accused Carthage of cheating by running and claimed that the border should be further west. The Ambassadors from Carthage were buried alive on the spot!
|Salamanca Risk Management|
SRM has been delivering risk management services in Libya since February 2011. Initial operations involved logistic support to media teams reporting on the Revolution. From November 2011, SRM capitalised on the experiences of its Country Manager and consultants and assisted a number of major international companies to re-establish their businesses.
SRM maintains a permanent footprint in Tripoli comprising the Country Manager, an experienced Arabist operations’ team and a number of Libyan facilitators. A separate office is retained in Benghazi. Long-term projects in Tripoli, Khums, Birak and Sebha enable SRM to maintain excellent coverage of the nationwide security environment. Routine enabling support is provided for a wide range of commercial sectors across Libya, including management services, construction, energy, education, media, defence and NGOs.
SRM is fully licensed to operate in Libya and is in partnership with a Libyan security and risk management company giving strategic reach and insight into key areas of the Libyan Government at national and regional level.
Khalifa Hifter Briefing [Friday 23 May 2014]
Khalifa Hifter (‘Hifter’) was born in Benghazi and served as one of Gadhafi’s senior commanders during Libya’s disastrous conflict with Chad during the 1980s. He and several of his men were captured by Chadian forces in 1987 and subsequently disowned by Gadhafi, a policy adopted towards all Libyan prisoners of war. Hifter then went into exile in the US, where he lived for around 20 years in northern Virginia. His proximity to the CIA headquarters in Langley during this time has led to speculation he may have developed ties with the US intelligence community.
In February 2011, Hifter returned to Libya to take part in the civil war. Although some sources named him as the commander of the rebel armed forces, the National Transitional Council, then the temporary governing authority, denied this and instead afforded the title to Abdel Fatah Younes. Hifter was nonetheless given the rank of Lieutenant General by the NTC, making him officially the third most senior rebel commander. Hifter did not play a significant role in the transitional governments following the revolution, instead returning to his tribal heartland in eastern Libya.
2 Operation Libyan Dignity
In February 2014, Hifter returned to the public spotlight when he made a televised announcement calling for the suspension of the General National Congress (‘GNC’). However, this action did not garner widespread support; Ali Zeidan, then the Libyan Prime Minister, dismissing his statement as “ridiculous”. However, on 16 May, Hifter re-emerged, this time with
the backing of several Libyan army units as well as at least two Mirage air force jets, and announced the commencement of Operation Libyan Dignity.
2.2 Benghazi Assault
Hifter initially framed Libyan Dignity as a military operation targeting extremist groups in Benghazi - principally Ansar Al Sharia and the February 17 Brigade. The GNC quickly denounced the operation as illegal and called on all army personnel not to take part. It became apparent that the operation had broader aims when on 18 May, Zintani militia brigades stormed the GNC building and captured seven representatives who they claimed were supporting eastern extremists. Although these Zintani militia denied they were acting under Hifter’s direct orders, they did express solidarity with Operation Libyan Dignity. Over the past few days, various government and military officials have pledged their backing for Hifter and Libyan Dignity, whilst the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood has predictably condemned his actions as a military coup.
2.3 Hifter’s Intentions
On 20 May, Hifter gave an interview to the Washington Post in which he claimed that Operation Libyan Dignity had been planned over the past two years in response to the assassination and kidnapping of various military and security officials in Benghazi. Hifter added that the aim of Libyan Dignity was to re-establish security in the country, and that he intended to create a unified national army and police force.
On 21 May, Hifter outlined his plans for a political transition, calling for the GNC to be dissolved and the current government dismissed. He indicated that Libya’s top judicial council should appoint a temporary government to oversee the next elections, with the 60-member constitution committee acting as the government’s legislative arm. On the same day, Habib Lamin, the Minister of Culture, announced his support for Hifter’s plan and stated he no longer recognised the GNC’s legitimacy. Similar announcements by other ministers and GNC delegates are possible over the coming days.
2.4 Government Response
As noted above, the government and most delegates within the Islamist and Misrata-dominated GNC have condemned Operation Libyan Dignity as illegal. However, there appears to be a recognition that the GNC in its current form is unsustainable, given the substantial public backing for Hifter. Accordingly, on 20 May, the GNC held an emergency meeting at the Radisson Blu Hotel in Tripoli to seek a solution to the political crisis, resulting in proposals to hold
elections at the end of June for a new interim legislature and a rerun of the controversial prime ministerial vote won by Ahmed Maetiq. However, after these proposals were announced, it was reported that the GNC meeting failed to reach quorum, and it is unclear whether the measures will be enacted.
For his part Maetiq has refused to step down, stating in a press conference that “Libyans don’t want to return to having a military body rule them”.
2.5 Possible Consequences
Operation Libyan Dignity has yet to develop into a large-scale conflict, despite the clear risks involved in attempting to overhaul the country’s political process. In particular, the restraint exercised so far by the Misratan brigades in not retaliating against the recent Zintani militia movements has prevented widespread clashes from occurring in Tripoli. However, the potential for further violence remains high, particular as Hifter has employed divisive rhetoric in outlining
his vision for the political transition. Hifter has accused Islamists in the GNC of supporting extremist groups in Benghazi and fuelling the current instability in Libya.
Hifter’s statements highlight the clear parallels with Egypt’s recent political transition, where General Sisi deposed Mohammed Morsi, the elected President, following widespread public dissatisfaction with the government, before launching a crackdown on Egypt’s Islamist groups. In an interview with an Egyptian newspaper on 22 May, Hifter praised Sisi’s actions and the Egyptian military coup, adding further credence to comparisons between the two men.
In Egypt, Sisi’s anti-Islamist stance led to violent clashes between security forces and Muslim Brotherhood-led protestors – in Libya the Muslim Brotherhood has not yet mobilised significant street protests, however there remains the potential for future clashes. At the very least the Islamist factions in Libyan politics, led by the Misratan brigades and the Muslim Brotherhood, are unlikely to simply accept Hifter’s suggested steps for the political transition.
2.6 Contact Details
Tom Crooke Forward Deployed Analyst
Tel: +44(0)7551 154247
Salamanca Group Libya Office
Tel: +218(0)91 954 2006
If you would like to contribute to this section of the LBBC website, in the first instance please contact the Secretariat at: firstname.lastname@example.org or call +44 (0) 20 7152 4051