The LBBC Business Risk Advisor
The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.
There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and it may get worse before it gets better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, they will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, will have the financial resources to pay for the country’s needs.
No-one can predict when stability will return so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business. The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material on this page is provided by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.
This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular business under consideration.
We are sure that LBBC members - both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market - will find the information provided on this page and the more detailed advice available from the providers both interesting and a valuable input to their business strategies and decisions.
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SNE continues to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis. To discuss these services further please contact us on email@example.com
SNE Libya Security Summary - 24 November 2015
Tuesday evening saw clashes between Misratan and Tripoli Abu Salim militias near the Khada Hospital in Tripoli. Checkpoints and road blocks were set up by local Militias and fifty four Misratan personnel were arrested, based on identity, and were abducted. This caused roads to be closed, congested traffic and tension in and around the city.
On Wednesday,Martin Kobler, on his first day as UNSMIL Chief said that ‘’the Libyans cannot afford to waste the hard work already done on the peace accord’’. He went on further to suggest that he was eager to press ahead with resolving ‘’the remaining small number of outstanding issues’’.
On Wednesday masked gunmen stormed the Ministry of Foreign affairs in the eastern government of Al Thanni. Two of the ministry members of staff were taken to hospital suffering from their injuries and the ministry undersecretary Hassan Al Saghayer was also assaulted in the attack.
During a meeting on Wednesday in the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, officials from Tripoli’s Abu Salim Municipality met with their counterparts from Misrata. Both parties condemned acts of identity based abduction and agreed to free hostages that had been taken on Tuesday. Consequently, Thursday saw the release of the fifty four hostages taken by the Tripoli Brigades and five were released from the Misratan Brigades.
On Thursday is was announced that a new Libyan airline company based in Al Bayda is expected to be launched next year. Free Falcon Air is headquartered at Labraq airport and is privately owned by the Abu Sittah family in Zintan.
In the east on Thursday and in a bid to cut off Daesh supply routes and foreign fighters between Derna and Tobruk, Libyan National Forces (LNA) blocked roads between the two cities.
Zuwara in the west of the capital on Thursday saw an explosives smuggling bid foiled. One Sabrathan and five Tunisians were arrested by authorities in Zuwara. It is believed that the smugglers were members of Daesh and from an area eleven kilometres south of Sabratha.
Although a peace deal had been signed on Wednesday between Tripoli militias and Misratan militias, Friday saw further clashes between Tripoli and Misratan forces in the Wadi Rabie area, east of the Tripoli International Airport.
In his first formal meeting in Tobruk, Libya on Saturday, the newly-appointed UNSMIL chief, Martin Kobler stressed that he represented continuity and that he was following immediately in the footsteps of his predecessor Bernardino Leon. In a strong appeal to back the Peace Accord that is on the table he told members of the House of Representatives in Tobruk that the agreement could not be reopened.
Whilst in a meeting with the General National Congress on Sunday, Martin Kobler once again repeated his message that he gave to the House of Representatives ‘’the current political accord is non-negotiable and UNSMIL remains impartial".
Airstrikes on militant targets continued throughout the reporting week within Benghazi, particularly in the Hawary, M’Reisa, Sabri, Sidi Fredj and the Laithi areas.
August 2015, 50
Libya today is a changed country. Since the fall of the authoritarian regime, power relationships in and between communities have transformed. Obedience to the state has evaporated along with the state. Young people have endured years of interrupted lives, education, employment, and community. Power vacuums are being filled by the earnest, the opportunistic and the malevolent.
As companies plan their return to Libya, they will find it changed in many ways. The absence of effective national governance has resulted in alternative power relationships at the community level. Local forces, feeling entitled and empowered, will demand a significant role in determining social, political and economic developments in their regions. Understanding these changed relationships, perceptions, and expectations is vital to any company contemplating business in Libya.
“Keeping up with these changes and understanding what they mean is the business of Libya Analytics.”
Rationale for five Community Discussions
Following the 2011 revolution that ended Gaddafi rule Libya has struggled to reap the dividends of political freedom and the promise of development. Armed groups, credited with propelling the revolution, either dissolved into the nascent and formative state security structures,regrouped as local militias, or gained political and or economic power through force of arms. Libyans previously proud of their revolutionaries quickly tired of ad hoc and often irresponsible shows of force for political or economic gain without consideration of state building.
The inability of the state to exercise its legitimate authority within its sovereign borders allowed the exponential rise of groups functioning outside the law.
Unhealthy rhetoric, violence and interference have sabotaged critical state-‐building activities and initiatives creating deep divisions across communities, and a frustration that boiled to the forefront in late 2013.
As the post-‐revolution period spiraled into 2014, political institutions and national solidarity fragmented so severely that repairing it has become an ongoing international concern. While desperately needed, conditions for a unified political
agreement have eluded international brokers and representatives from two rival claimants to the reins of the Libyan government. It is a country cleaved along a myriad of complicated fault lines: secular-‐religious, regional-‐tribal, revolutionary-‐ Gaddafi era, and economic.
Ultimately some form of political agreement must be found to halt Libya’s careening toward an unsalvageable failed state that will remain fractured and distinguished as a haven for human traffickers, terrorists and the power of the gun. The majority of Libyans want an end to the current turbulence and uncertainty. Growing restlessness will prevail as citizens seek to restore a semblance of stability and continue the project they started in 2011.
Libya Analytics undertook in-‐depth interviews with residents of five towns in Libya. Those interviewed are active members of their communities or opinion shapers.
They comprise a number of occupations and range in age. All are employed or actively engaged in grassroots organizations, including civil servants, oil company workers and elders in insular oasis towns and larger hub centers, which serve as staging for regional trade and commerce.
The five communities are located in the central and southwest regions deeply inside the petroleum producing areas of Libya. These communities were selected because of their proximity to the oil fields, and their inexorable link to that economy. The views of 50 respondents to the interviews are important because they provide valuable insights to the perspectives of respected community members, who are influential in shaping broader community views.
Detailed and comprehensive analysis can be obtained by contacting the Libya Analytics team through Frank Talbot at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Fidus is a risk monitoring service specialising in the Middle East and North Africa. We support a range of commercial sectors, providing our clients with a broad suite of reports on markets where uncertainty and risk prevail.
Fidus has built a reputation for analytical finesse and clear reporting. We write our reports with the reader in mind, contextualising the most complex issues into a format that is actionable by all end users, in all levels of an organisation. See examples of our reporting, or contact us for more information on email@example.com.
We are committed to our ethos of ‘refined insight, plain speaking’
- Resumption of dialogue in Geneva postponed
- Confrontation between former regime supporters and Libya Dawn
- Islamic State conducts suicide car bomb attack in Derna
- Tripoli still plagued by power cuts
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) dialogue, scheduled to get back underway on 10 August, was postponed to allow for the National Salvation Government (NSG) to send representatives to the meeting in Geneva. The NSG had been boycotting the dialogue in protest at the fifth draft proposal for a unity government, which relegated them to an advisory capacity.
There are significant divisions in Tripoli over whether or not to participate in the dialogue. In addition to political divisions, various militia groups have also adopted opposing stances, some in support of dialogue and others in unmitigated opposition. These divisions do offer hope that a more moderate centre can emerge on the NSG side, though this is yet to materialise. Fundamentally, it may be that the creation of a more compromising political centre among the NSG will only be achieved through confrontation between rival Libya Dawn militias.
There was a slight uptick in activity in and around Derna, where Islamic State (IS) fighters are currently engaged in a battle with local groups, having been dislodged from the town in June. On 9 August, a Sudanese national fighting for IS carried out a suicide car bombing… Full Report (pdf)
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