The LBBC Business Risk Advisor
The Libyan people’s political and economic hopes following the 2011 revolution, repeatedly confirmed by several elections over the years that followed, have been frustrated by political failure and armed conflict between rival politicians, regions and militias.
There is no sign of an early resolution to this conflict and it may get worse before it gets better. But the country’s tribulations will pass and the Libyan people’s aspirations for a more settled and prosperous future will be within their reach once more. At that stage, they will look for goods, services and partnerships with overseas suppliers and, as an oil exporter, will have the financial resources to pay for the country’s needs.
No-one can predict when stability will return so it is crucial to monitor developments in-country to ensure that, when it does, LBBC members are ready to resume business. The LBBC has created this page to provide members and their clients with access to up-to-date information and analyses. The material on this page is provided by professional risk advisory companies with staff on the ground in Libya.
This is not to say that there is no business to be done in Libya even now. Visible (and no doubt invisible) exports continue, albeit at a modest rate, and some contracts are offered. The risk advisory page provides a valuable resource for members considering responding to these business prospects and the opportunity to consult the companies involved on the conditions affecting the viability and location of the particular business under consideration.
We are sure that LBBC members - both experienced Libyan operators and businesses new to the Libyan market - will find the information provided on this page and the more detailed advice available from the providers both interesting and a valuable input to their business strategies and decisions.
|Libya Reverb Project (LRP)|
The Libya Reverb Project (LRP) is an effort to understand the reverberations of current events in Libya among social media communities. To do this, LRP monitors the Facebook pages of prominent Arabic language media outlets that primarily report on Libyan news. LRP conducts thematic analysis of the most engaging posts in order to uncover emerging trends in the social media discourse. To receive the weekly reports, please subscribe here.
LRP’s latest weekly report covers the period of January 28 to February 04. The most significant themes during the reporting period include: Security & Crime and the Political Dialogue Process. The report further provides insight on:
• Social media reactions to IS execution of PGF prisoners
• Opinions on GNA’s reduction of ministries
• Discourse about Serraj’s meeting with Haftar and the reactions of other Presidential Council members
To read the full report, please click here.
|SNE Special Projects|
SNE continues to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis. To discuss these services further please contact us on firstname.lastname@example.org
SNE Libya Security Summary - 9 February 2016
This week has seen the General National Congress (GNC) expel another eight members on the grounds that they had unlawfully taken part in the United Nations (UN) led dialogue.
Although the GNC takes the view that it has the right to appoint its own team to the Libya dialogue, the Libya dialogue is, in fact, at the invitation of the UN Special Envoy.
Last week saw the House of Representatives (HoR) reject the Government of National Accords (GNA) submission of its thirty two member government, and the HoR demand that the GNA resubmit a smaller government within ten days.
Reports received from Skhirat that the Presidency Council had reduced its numbers and in addition to its own nine members, the government will comprise of twelve ministries to which those appointed will come from Libya’s three historic regions, but not equally. Five would come from Tripolitania, four from Cyrenaica, and three from Fezzan. A further two ministries might also be appointed.
However the Presidency Council missed the ten day deadline that had been given to them by the HoR. It is expected that the Presidency Council will request an extension from the HoR to present them with the new Government.
The security situation within the capital has remained quiet this reporting week, with no reports of any significant incidents taking place.
The Tripoli court of appeal once again adjourned the trial of Saaid Gadhafi until the middle of March this year. The adjournment call came after a request from the defence lawyers that further pleas had to be collated and submitted.
Whilst in the west, Tunisia completed the first stage of a barrier along its border with Libya. It stretches one hundred and ninety six kilometres from the main border crossing Ras Jedir on the coast to Dehiba, the southern border crossing point, and is two kilometres away from the official border, inside Tunisian territory. The second part of the barrier is currently under construction. The Tunisian authorities said that, once complete, it would be a total of five hundred kilometres in length.
The east saw reports that the military intelligence commander in Misrat, had circulated an urgent telegram that demanded the closure of the main road from Misrata to Oboukran and to bolster up all other checkpoints in the east, west and south leading to the city. This was reported to have been due to the possible threat of Daesh attempting to carry out operations on strategic locations within Misrata.
Sirte saw Daesh arrest a further fourteen civilians in the eastern district. Further reports revealed that Daesh was planning to carry out further executions of Salafists on Friday of next week.
The sniper struck once again in Sirte killing another Daesh commander. This is now the fourth Daesh commander that has been killed by the sniper in the area.
Further clashes have continued in areas of Benghazi throughout the reporting week between Libyan National Army soldiers, Ansar A Sharia and Daesh militants. Derna residents once again reported unidentified aircraft carrying out airstrikes on Daesh positions.
SNE continues to keep our permanent expat country management team on the ground in Tripoli supporting our clients international and local personnel as well as critical infrastructure. We are also currently involved in working with many of our clients on their re-entry planning, security risk management surveys and political sector analysis. To discuss these services further please contact us on the details below.
August 2015, 50
Libya today is a changed country. Since the fall of the authoritarian regime, power relationships in and between communities have transformed. Obedience to the state has evaporated along with the state. Young people have endured years of interrupted lives, education, employment, and community. Power vacuums are being filled by the earnest, the opportunistic and the malevolent.
As companies plan their return to Libya, they will find it changed in many ways. The absence of effective national governance has resulted in alternative power relationships at the community level. Local forces, feeling entitled and empowered, will demand a significant role in determining social, political and economic developments in their regions. Understanding these changed relationships, perceptions, and expectations is vital to any company contemplating business in Libya.
“Keeping up with these changes and understanding what they mean is the business of Libya Analytics.”
Rationale for five Community Discussions
Following the 2011 revolution that ended Gaddafi rule Libya has struggled to reap the dividends of political freedom and the promise of development. Armed groups, credited with propelling the revolution, either dissolved into the nascent and formative state security structures,regrouped as local militias, or gained political and or economic power through force of arms. Libyans previously proud of their revolutionaries quickly tired of ad hoc and often irresponsible shows of force for political or economic gain without consideration of state building.
The inability of the state to exercise its legitimate authority within its sovereign borders allowed the exponential rise of groups functioning outside the law.
Unhealthy rhetoric, violence and interference have sabotaged critical state-‐building activities and initiatives creating deep divisions across communities, and a frustration that boiled to the forefront in late 2013.
As the post-‐revolution period spiraled into 2014, political institutions and national solidarity fragmented so severely that repairing it has become an ongoing international concern. While desperately needed, conditions for a unified political
agreement have eluded international brokers and representatives from two rival claimants to the reins of the Libyan government. It is a country cleaved along a myriad of complicated fault lines: secular-‐religious, regional-‐tribal, revolutionary-‐ Gaddafi era, and economic.
Ultimately some form of political agreement must be found to halt Libya’s careening toward an unsalvageable failed state that will remain fractured and distinguished as a haven for human traffickers, terrorists and the power of the gun. The majority of Libyans want an end to the current turbulence and uncertainty. Growing restlessness will prevail as citizens seek to restore a semblance of stability and continue the project they started in 2011.
Libya Analytics undertook in-‐depth interviews with residents of five towns in Libya. Those interviewed are active members of their communities or opinion shapers.
They comprise a number of occupations and range in age. All are employed or actively engaged in grassroots organizations, including civil servants, oil company workers and elders in insular oasis towns and larger hub centers, which serve as staging for regional trade and commerce.
The five communities are located in the central and southwest regions deeply inside the petroleum producing areas of Libya. These communities were selected because of their proximity to the oil fields, and their inexorable link to that economy. The views of 50 respondents to the interviews are important because they provide valuable insights to the perspectives of respected community members, who are influential in shaping broader community views.
Detailed and comprehensive analysis can be obtained by contacting the Libya Analytics team through Frank Talbot at: email@example.com
Fidus is a risk monitoring service specialising in the Middle East and North Africa. We support a range of commercial sectors, providing our clients with a broad suite of reports on markets where uncertainty and risk prevail.
Fidus has built a reputation for analytical finesse and clear reporting. We write our reports with the reader in mind, contextualising the most complex issues into a format that is actionable by all end users, in all levels of an organisation. See examples of our reporting, or contact us for more information on firstname.lastname@example.org.
We are committed to our ethos of ‘refined insight, plain speaking’
- Resumption of dialogue in Geneva postponed
- Confrontation between former regime supporters and Libya Dawn
- Islamic State conducts suicide car bomb attack in Derna
- Tripoli still plagued by power cuts
The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) dialogue, scheduled to get back underway on 10 August, was postponed to allow for the National Salvation Government (NSG) to send representatives to the meeting in Geneva. The NSG had been boycotting the dialogue in protest at the fifth draft proposal for a unity government, which relegated them to an advisory capacity.
There are significant divisions in Tripoli over whether or not to participate in the dialogue. In addition to political divisions, various militia groups have also adopted opposing stances, some in support of dialogue and others in unmitigated opposition. These divisions do offer hope that a more moderate centre can emerge on the NSG side, though this is yet to materialise. Fundamentally, it may be that the creation of a more compromising political centre among the NSG will only be achieved through confrontation between rival Libya Dawn militias.
There was a slight uptick in activity in and around Derna, where Islamic State (IS) fighters are currently engaged in a battle with local groups, having been dislodged from the town in June. On 9 August, a Sudanese national fighting for IS carried out a suicide car bombing… Full Report (pdf)
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